Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
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This document provides an overview and analysis of the 2016 US presidential election as of January 2016. It finds that most Americans view the country as headed in the wrong direction and are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Washington. For Republicans, national security has become the top issue over jobs and the economy. The Republican nomination race features 17 candidates narrowing to 12, with Trump and Cruz leading in early polling but many Republicans still undecided. The Democratic race shows Clinton leading Sanders nationally but the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire are close contests. The document outlines the upcoming primary calendar and debates schedule while analyzing voters' views of the campaigns.
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Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
- 1. J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 6 Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis
- 2. M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y
- 3. PAGE 3 N U M B ER O F A M E R IC ANS W H O V I E W C O U NTRY O N T H E W R O N G T R A C K I S H I G H ES T S I N CE 2 0 1 2 The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50% in about a decade. Source: HuffPost Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 12, 2016 RIGHT DIRECTION 25.2% WRONG TRACK 65.5%
- 4. PAGE 4 A M E R IC ANS A R E D I S S AT ISF IED O R A N G R Y A B O UT T H E WAY T H I N GS A R E G O I N G I N WA S H I NG TON Which comes closest to your feelings about theway things are going in Washington– enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic,dissatisfied but notangry, or angry? Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015 31% 53% 12% 1% Angry Dissatisfied butnotangry Satisfied butnotenthusiastic Enthusiastic 47% 49% Approve Disapprove Barack Obama's Current Job Approval 15% 75% Approve Disapprove Congress Current Job Approval Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, January 7-10, 2016 Source: Gallup Poll, January 4-10, 2016
- 5. PAGE 5 P U B L I C’S I S S UE P R I ORI TI ES R E F L ECT S A N AT I ON T H AT F E E L S L E S S S E C U RE Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 6-9,2015 Let me list some issues that havebeen proposed for the federal government to address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO of these items you think should be the top priority for the federal government? National security has become the top issue on the public’s mind for the federal government to address, overtaking jobs and the economy.
- 6. PAGE 6 D I S T I NCT S P L I T B E T WE EN T H E PA R TIE S O N T H E M O S T I M P O RTAN T I S S UE 38% 17% 19% 8% 2% 29% 38% 5% 7% 4% Economy Terrorism Health Care Immigration Tax Policy Democrats Republicans Which of these is the single most important issue in your choice for president? Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, December 10-13, 2015
- 7. PAGE 7 D I F F E RENCE S I N AT T RI BUT ES V O T E RS A R E L O O K I NG F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M INE E; D E M O CRATS D E S IR E F O R A L I B E R AL C A N D ID ATE H A S G R O W N Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 Democrats Republicans Shares values 19% 20% Cares about needs/problems 28% 13% Strong leadership 16% 29% Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21% Rightexperience 16% 8% Bestchance ofwinning 6% 7% Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you? December 2007 December 2015 60% 60% Republicans /Leaners WhoPrefer Conservative Presidential Candidate December 2007 December 2015 30% 36% Democrats /Leaners Who Prefer Liberal Presidential Candidate Source: Gallup Poll, December 2-6, 2015
- 8. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY : R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON
- 9. PAGE 9 S TA R TED W I T H 1 7 , N O W D O W N T O 1 2 C A N D IDATE S Dropped Out
- 10. PAGE 10 H I G H ER C A M PAI GN I N T E REST A M O N G R E P U BLI CANS T H A N AT S A M E P O I N T I N ’ 0 8 ; 65% 35% 80% 79% 48% 69% 65% 34% 64% Dec-15Jan-12Feb-08 % who would describe the presidential election campaign so far as “interesting” Democrat Republican Independent Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015 74% 86% 71% 75% 66% 72% Dec-07 Dec-15 % giving a lot/some thought to the candidates Republican Democrat Independent +10 -15
- 11. PAGE 11 T R U M P S U P PO RT H A S P I C K ED B A C K U P ; C A R S ON FA LTERS A S C R U Z C L I M BS Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 12% 14% 9% 9% 7% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 8% 13% 19% 11% 8% 6% 9% 10% 15% 11% 5% 15% 31% 28% 28% 34% 37% 10% 8% 14% 17% 21% 14% 8% June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Republican Primary Preference Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson Candidate Average Donald Trump 37.0% Ted Cruz 19.3% Marco Rubio 11.3% Ben Carson 7.5% Jeb Bush 5.0% Chris Christie 3.2% Carly Fiorina 2.7% Rand Paul 2.6% John Kasich 2.4% Mike Huckabee 2.2% Rick Santorum 0.6% Jim Gilmore 0.0% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of January 13, 2016
- 12. Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 PAGE 12 M A J O RI TY O F R E P U B LIC ANS H AVE N’ T M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N A C A N D IDAT E; J U S T O N E I N F O U R S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY D O N ’ T WA N T T R U MP 41% 36% 63% 58% 64% 36% Total Cruz supporter Trump supporter Made up Mightchange Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 5% 7% 10% 12% 13% 14% 24% 28% Cruz Rubio Christie Carson Kasich Paul Bush Trump Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?
- 13. PAGE 13 R E P U BL ICA NS H AV E M O R E C O N DI FENC E I N T R U M P T H A N O T H E R C O N T END ERS W H E N I T C O M E S T O T H E E C O N OMY, T E R ROR ISM Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015 51% 23% 16% 26% 15% Donald Trump Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush % Very Confident How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy? 40% 16% 20% 30% 17% Donald Trump Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush % Very Confident How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to handle the threat of terrorism?
- 14. PAGE 14 T R U M P A N D C R U Z R U N A C L O S E R A C E I N I O WA W H I L E T R U MP L E A D S I N N E W H A M P SH IRE Candidate Average Donald Trump 29.1% Marco Rubio 14.2% Ted Cruz 11.9% Chris Christie 11.3% John Kasich 10.5% Candidate Average Donald Trump 27.9% Ted Cruz 27.7% Marco Rubio 12.7% Ben Carson 7.6% Jeb Bush 4.2% Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters
- 15. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY : D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
- 16. PAGE 16 C L I N TON O N T O P I N D E M O C RATI C R A C E, B U T S A N DER S H A S N A R R OWE D H E R L E A D Candidate Average Hillary Clinton 52.4% Bernie Sanders 38.5% Martin O’Malley 2.4% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of January 13, 2016 Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 12% 17% 24% 25% 30% 33% 39% 60% 58% 47% 45% 55% 56% 52% June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among registered/leaned Democrats Sanders Clinton
- 17. PAGE 17 M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P O N W H I C H C A N D IDAT E T H E Y A R E S U P P ORTI NG 57% 59% 55% 41% 38% 44% Total Clinton supporter Sanders supporter Made up Mightchange Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 8% 9% 19% 58% Clinton Sanders O'Malley No one Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015
- 18. Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters PAGE 18 T H E R A C E I S C L O S E B E T W EEN C L I NTON A N D S A N DE RS I N B O T H I O WA A N D N E W H A M P S HIRE Candidate Average Bernie Sanders 49.8% Hillary Clinton 44.3% Martin O’Malley 2.7% Candidate Average Hillary Clinton 45.9% Bernie Sanders 42.2% Martin O’Malley 5.1%
- 19. P R E D I C T I O N M A R K E T & W H A T ’ S U P C O M I N G
- 20. PAGE 20 T H E P R E D I CTI ON M A R K ETS Source: PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster 3% 10% 21% 32% 34% Chris Christie Jeb Bush Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Donald Trump PredictWiseChance ofWinningRepublican Nomination 1% 16% 83% Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton PredictWiseChance ofWinningDemocratic Nomination As ofJanuary 14th
- 21. PAGE 21 A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS H AV E WAT CH ED AT L E A S T S O M E O F T H E P R E S I DEN TIA L D E B ATES, A C O M P LE TE C O N T RAST T O 8 Y E A R S A G O Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015 43% 69% 57% 31% Dec-07 Dec-15 Yes No So far, have you watched any of the televised debates between presidential candidates or haven’t you had a chance to watch any of them?
- 22. PAGE 22Source: Washington Post D E B ATE S C H E DUL E
- 23. PAGE 23 E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I MA RY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016 Date State Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus) Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary) Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary) Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus) Tuesday, March 1, 2016 Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama,Arkansas Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary) 18 DAYS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS
- 24. PAGE 24 M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S B E L I EVE T H E 2 0 1 6 C A M PAIGN T O B E “ I N T E RES TING ,” “ T O O N E G ATI VE, ” A N D “ N O T F O C US ED O N I M P O RTAN T P O L IC Y D E B ATES .” Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015 26% 67% Dull Interesting Would you describe the presidential campaign as dull or interesting? 54% 39% Too negative Nottoo negative 34% 58% Focused on importantpolicy debates Notfocused on importantpolicy debates Would you describe the presidential campaign as too negative or not? Would you describe the presidential campaign as focused on important policy debates or not?
- 25. PAGE 25 N E I T HE R F R O NT RUNN ER M E T W I T H A L O T O F E N T H USI ASM; S O M E WHAT M O R E A N X IE TY A B O U T A T R U MP P R E S ID ENCY T HAN A C L I N TON O N E Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, Dec 4-8, 2015 If Donald Trump is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what he will do in office? If Hillary Clinton is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what she will do in office? Total Rep Dem Ind Excited 11% 25% 2% 8% Optimistic, notexcited 24% 41% 8% 23% Concerned, notscared 24% 20% 25% 26% Scared 40% 13% 63% 41% Total Rep Dem Ind Excited 9% 2% 22% 4% Optimistic, notexcited 33% 8% 54% 35% Concerned, notscared 23% 24% 17% 27% Scared 34% 65% 6% 32%
- 26. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)